A way-too-early prediction of the 2026 General Assembly election

Is a blue wave coming? Democrats could make modest gains — if they recruit the right challengers

Every two years around this time, North Carolina politics nerds get a little early Christmas present: a fresh release of the Civitas Partisan Index from the John Locke Foundation.

It’s the best tool out there for understanding the landscape of General Assembly elections in North Carolina. And with municipal elections just behind us, the timing couldn’t be better.

Democrats swept most of last week’s local races, even in places where they’re technically nonpartisan. In south Charlotte, they flipped a long-held Republican seat on the city council. In Cary and other suburbs, they evicted Republicans from their formerly safe seats on town boards. Virginia and New Jersey predictably went blue in their state-level elections — but by wider margins than many expected.

So it’s no surprise the question I’ve been hearing the most is: Are we looking at another blue wave in 2026?

Let’s talk about that. But first — go read the CPI.

So… will there be a blue wave in 2026?

Yes. Probably. Kind of. But not ne…