It's campaign announcement season

With Tillis out and new names jumping in, the 2026 campaign season is officially underway.

I had this week’s newsletter all queued up and ready to go before the bombshell news that U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis was bowing out of his re-election bid. To be honest, my first reaction was to think it was an AI hoax. The timing was just too on the nose.

But as it turns out, it’s real. I wrote a quick reaction for the newspaper, which you can read here: Thom Tillis is a survivor. But he couldn’t survive a breakup with Trump.

I’ll have plenty more to say about the whole thing in the coming weeks, because it’s going to be a wild ride. Tillis has already started dropping snark bombs on X and wearing epic bolo ties on the Senate floor.

We may learn more about who Tillis really is in the next 18 months than we did in the previous 18 years.

And now, of course, Republicans need a candidate for the 2026 U.S. Senate ballot. Funny enough, I didn’t have to change this newsletter’s headline at all. It’s even more timely.

Even in a normal cycle, this is one of my favorite parts of the political calendar. You can almost set your watch to it — just as summer heats up, the first real campaign announcements start to land. And even when you expect them, they still carry a spark.

Last week, I talked with two Republicans who just jumped into the 2026 mix for the General Assembly:

• Stacie McGinn, who fell short by just 209 votes last cycle in N.C. Senate District 42 in Charlotte, is officially back in the ring, ready for a rematch that’s already being watched as one of the toughest primaries and general elections in the state.

• John Powell, the GOP voice in Union County, is stepping into race for N.C. House District 55, currently held by Rep. Mark Brody. Early signs point to a really competitive primary.

That’s exactly the kind of energy I love to see. Longleaf Politics exists to help smart, conservative leaders win, and announcing early is often the first sign that someone’s serious about doing it the right way.

Congrats to Stacie and John for making it real. If you’re running, or just thinking about it, drop me a note. Whether it’s U.S. Senate or soil and water commissioner, I’d love to hear what you’re working on.

Quick hits

• Early last week, I took a look at Gov. Josh Stein’s first three vetoes — and the carefully moderate tone he’s using to deliver them. Gone is Roy Cooper’s fire-and-brimstone messaging, but don’t mistake the tone for a shift in direction. It’s the same partisan playbook, just with softer edges. Read the full column here: Even with his vetoes, Josh Stein goes moderate. That’s about to be tested
  

• In my other newspaper column, I look at the identity crisis facing North Carolina Democrats. Party leaders say they want to reconnect with rural voters. But in the same week they held a listening tour in Martin County, they promoted a drag brunch back in Raleigh—at the exact hour most rural voters were in church. You can’t run two campaigns at the same time and expect people to believe both. Read the full column here: In North Carolina, Democrats have an identity crisis

At a premium

The cost of a permanent campaign

Shrimpers show 'how politics is supposed to work'

Important reads

• Party switch gives GOP edge in Robeson County (Carolina Journal)

• Dancing for dollars: when states follow Washington, they lose themselves (American Habits)

• Gov. Josh Stein signs foster care reform bill into law with bipartisan support (WRAL)

• Has Conservatism Outlived Its Usefulness? (Crisis Magazine)

Top spenders on social media last week

It is just unreal how much money is being spent lobbying the public about clean energy. It’s all related to the Big, Beautiful Bill up in Washington.

Question of the week

Last week, I asked you whether Rep. Julie von Haefen should resign over her gross social media post. The results were almost evenly split: 47% of you said she should resign, while 45% of you said doing so would set a bad precedent.

This week, I need your help with something I’m working on. I’m part of the E.A. Morris Fellowship for Emerging Leaders this year, and we each have to complete a civic project.

I’m planning to put something together called Dads for North Carolina— an effort to get normal fathers to step into public leadership, influence their communities, and make North Carolina the best place in America to raise a family.

I’ve got two logo concepts, and I want you to tell me which one you like better.