This is what a sophisticated campaign looks like

A top Democrat consultant just gave us a peek behind the curtain — and it shows how political power is wielded in North Carolina

I’m going to keep writing on this theme for the next four years: Republicans in North Carolina are way outclassed when it comes to electing governors.

Here’s another piece of evidence. Top Democrat consultant Morgan Jackson just gave us an unusually detailed behind-the-scenes look at how Democrats swept the top three state offices yet again.

In a podcast episode with Spectrum News and op-ed published in The Hill, he illustrated how his firm, Nexus Strategies, orchestrated his party’s “best year since 2018” and the largest margin of victory in 40 years in a gubernatorial race.

“Any battleground state in the country would love to have our record,” he told Tim Boyum, and Jackson’s right.

The playbook is actually pretty simple, but it requires two things: Money and planning. Here’s how it went. If Republicans ever want to elect a governor again, they’d do well to take notes.

1. Raise a ton of money early

There’s a golden rule in politics: He who has the gold, makes the rules. And the key to this entire playbook is having a ton of money. Gov.-elect Josh Stein exited 2022 with $3.8 million in cash on hand, and then raised another $11.7 million in 2023 — a record-breaking amount of money in an “off” year.

That sort of war-chest gives you a lot of options heading into an election cycle. One important one is paying firms like Nexus Strategies to plan campaigns.

Nexus Strategies raked in more than $1.2 million from Stein and Gov. Roy Cooper alone from early 2023 through the third quarter of 2024, according to data compiled by Longleaf Politics. Jeff Jackson (no relation to Morgan) chipped in another $125,000.

2. Build your playbook early

The gameplan for Stein’s campaign was already researched and developed before candidate filing even opened up. Jackson said Nexus Strategies ran focus groups with the infamous “Skirts” ad¹ in fall 2023 — a full year before the election.

This Morgan Jackson quote is incredibly illuminating:

“We focused grouped it with Trump-loving, non-college educated, pro-life women over 50,” Morgan Jackson said on the Spectrum News podcast. “These women in these focus groups said Donald Trump should be on Mount Rushmore. And when we showed them that spot, they said, ‘That son of a b---- shouldn't be allowed to run for office.’ Again, hate Democrats. Pro-Trump, MAGA-MAGA-MAGA, pro-life. And they were offended by that ad.”

By the way, Jackson also said that Nexus Strategies had lined up “15 other things” to attack Robinson on, but ran out of time to deploy them.

3. Overwhelm your opponent early

The Stein campaign debuted the “Skirts” attack ad in May and never stopped running it. Jackson said the May launch date was the earliest sustained advertising campaign in North Carolina history.

“The truth is, Mark Robinson did all the work in this campaign, we just paid for it,” Jackson said.

Jackson said that Nexus Strategies ran regular polling on Robinson’s favorability. Over the two months after the “Skirts” ad launched, Robinson’s favorables started to decline, while his unfavorables stayed the same, Jackson said. But favorables are always the leading indicator in the horse race.

4. Sew up your victory early and then grow your coattails

And sure enough, the unfavorables caught up, and the poll numbers overall did as well. The race was over by August, Jackson said — well before the CNN story dropped. That freed up Stein to send money to other candidates running for Council of State and the General Assembly.

Nexus Strategies polling also indicated that other Democrats in North Carolina should start running ads tying their Republican opponents to Mark Robinson. That tactic was considered but rejected in 2020 and 2016, Jackson told WRAL.

It wasn’t always successful in 2024, but it was successful enough: Democrats broke the supermajority in the state House and picked up a seat on the Council of State to make it an even 5-5.

Jackson compared it to the Republican tactic of tying every Democrat in North Carolina to former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, regardless

“They have Nancy Pelosi-ed the hell out of us for over a decade. I can’t tell you the number of anti-Roy Cooper ads that tied him to Nancy Pelosi,” Jackson said on the podcast. “I told Republicans we're going to Mark Robinson the s--- out of them this entire election, and that's what we did the last six months.”

This is what political power and planning look like

When you have an unbelievable amount of money for your campaign, it opens a lot of doors. You can hire the best consultants, get the best opposition research, develop ads years in advance, and test them regularly. That’s the value of a political machine designed to elect governors, and it’s something Republicans don’t have.

Important reads

• Moms for Liberty candidates lost in NC. What does that mean about the group's influence? (WFAE)

• Democrat Pat Cotham’s turbulent tenure on Mecklenburg commission comes to a quiet end (Charlotte Observer)

• GOP holdouts remain undecided on forthcoming vote to strip powers of incoming Democrats (Anderson Alerts)

• Attorneys general are part of the resistance. The GOP is close to ending that (WFAE)

• The failed rebrand of Kamala Harris (Nate Silver)

Brad Overcash has a fan club

I got a lot of great response to my post two weeks ago about 9 potential future governors that Republicans should invest in. But one message was louder than all the others: Brad Overcash should be on that list.

The freshman senator from Gaston County took over Sen. Kathy Harrington’s seat when the former Senate majority leader retired in 2022. Overcash just won re-election to a second term in dominating fashion.

The 43-year-old is a litigator with Charlotte mega-firm Parker Poe, so state attorney general is not outside the realm of possibility in the next decade. I love that he lives in Belmont — one of those metro-adjacent areas that seem poised to produce successful Republican statewide candidates.

Overcash will need to invest a lot more to raise his profile and put himself in a position to run for higher office, but I feel good about including him in the bucket of potential future governors.

Speaking of the list, here are the poll results for the question I asked: Which sitting legislator is the most likely future governor?

• Sen. Danny Britt: 33%

• Rep. Kyle Hall: 28%

• Rep. Erin Paré: 22%

• Rep. Jonathan Almond: 11%

• Rep. Allen Chesser: 6%

Top spenders on social last week

Question of the Week

1. This ad will go down in North Carolina political history as the most devastating of all time, and it will be talked about decades from now just like we still talk about the 1990 Jesse Helms “Hands” ad today.