Mark Robinson campaign disappears in final days
With Election Day looming, candidates are publishing their final messages. I pick out the best one, and share a few more observations in the final hours of the campaign.
Well, N.C. politics world, we’re almost there. I hope you aren’t too burned out.
At this stage of the campaign, there are only a few jobs left to do: Get out your party’s vote, energize your volunteers and try to reach that small sliver of the population that’s still undecided. That’s where the closing argument comes in.
Over the last few days, candidates have released their final ads, summing up their campaign themes and encouraging people to cast their ballots. Spending to get that message out has reached a fever pitch.
I spent some time digging into the closing arguments from North Carolina’s top candidates. Here are some observations.
Mark Robinson ads are nowhere to be found
The Republican candidate for governor pulled his TV ads after the devastating CNN story broke, and he’s been dark there ever since. But now it appears that Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson’s campaign has stopped running digital ads, as well. As of Nov. 3, I can find no record of ads running on Google or Facebook.
Robinson’s last Google ad finished its run on Sept. 20, the day after the CNN story dropped. The final Facebook ads ran on Oct. 22.
He’s still on the road, according to his campaign Facebook page, but few people are joining him in the final days.
One of the most common questions I’ve gotten over the past few weeks is whether Robinson’s implosion will have an impact on either the presidential race or down the ballot. My first reaction has been to say “no.” North Carolina voters have proven again and again that they’re willing to split their ballots and view each high-profile race on its own.
However, Robinson’s complete abandonment of advertising in the closing days of the campaign may end up having an effect down the ballot. Democrat Josh Stein has transferred more than $13 million this cycle from his campaign to the state party, according to a 48-hour report last week, which it can use in swing General Assembly races or Council of State races.
In the third quarter, Stein sent more the the N.C. Democratic Party than Robinson spent on his entire campaign, according to an analysis from Bryan Anderson of Anderson Alerts.
That’s an astounding amount of money and it could really make a big impact. If Democrats succeed in breaking the Republican supermajority in the General Assembly, you could very well point to Robinson as the reason.
N.C. House Republicans take a shot at Garland Pierce
The N.C. House Republican Campaign Committee has nearly doubled its ad spending in the final week of the campaign, simultaneously boosting GOP candidates in swing districts and attacking their opponents. The committee has spent more than $17,000 on Facebook in the past week to run two dozen ads supporting:
Rep. Erin Paré (Wake)
Rep. Tricia Cotham (Mecklenburg)
Rep. John Blust (Guilford)
Ruth Smith (Buncombe)
Rep. Tim Reader (Pitt)
Rep. Allen Chesser (Nash)
Rep. Frank Sossamon (Granville/Vance)
And attacking:
Nicole Sidman (Cotham’s opponent in Mecklenburg)
Dante Pittman (running against Rep. Ken Fontenot in Wilson)
Beth Helfrich (running for Rep. John Bradford’s open seat in Mecklenburg)
Evonne Hopkins (running northern Wake)
Rep. Garland Pierce (Scotland/Hoke)
It’s that last one I find most interesting. Pierce is a 10-term representative in a rural area who has been one of the few Democrats to be willing to stand up to Gov. Roy Cooper and vote to override his vetoes. Republicans have tended to treat these Democrats as allies to cobble together a working supermajority — something that may very well be necessary in the next session. Perhaps caucus director Stephen Wiley sees the potential to flip this seat red?
Hal Weatherman has the state’s best closing argument
The best closing argument in North Carolina politics this cycle might just be from Hal Weatherman. The Republican candidate for lieutenant governor hits all the right notes: It’s humanizing, it’s heartfelt, it’s authentic, and it appeals to your aspirations. If an undecided voter actually sit and watch this video, they’ll come away with a very positive impression. In the interest of full disclosure, I did work for Hal in 2020, but that’s not coloring my perspective here. Honestly, I’m inspired.
Mecklenburg Democrats run GOTV campaign
North Carolina Democrats have been disappointed in their party’s Mecklenburg turnout over the last few cycles. This year, the county party has dropped about $15,000 in digital ads pushing people to cast ballots. They’re primarily going after young, female voters. It’s the only county party I’ve seen run digital ads this cycle.
Important reads
Latest flood relief bill leaves businesses underwater (Smoky Mountain News)
North Carolina’s Sports Betting in the Red (N.C. Family Policy Council)
The early vote doesn’t reliably predict results (Nate Silver)
Trump identifies a scapegoat in case he loses [Michael Whatley] (Axios)
JD Vance tells High Point students they should be “pissed off” at current economic outlook (Carolina Journal)
Top spenders on social media last week
We have a new Facebook ad spending champion: Jeff Jackson. Gubernatorial Democratic nominee Josh Stein has dominated Facebook ad spend among N.C. candidates for the entire campaign season, but he was edged out last week by the man hoping to replace him at the Department of Justice.
Longleaf Politics readers split their ballots
Last week, we asked you if you vote straight ticket or split your ballot. A plurality of you split, meaning you’ll consider voting for both Republicans and Democrats. Here were the results.
Yes, I consider both parties: 45%
No, I only vote Republican: 39%
No, I only vote Democrat: 15%
Hi, Andrew! The Gaston County Republican Party ran a series of targeted digital ads during the early voting.