The only thing standing in the way of full Democratic control of North Carolina state government is a few hundred-vote lead for Sen. Danny Britt in his Robeson, Scotland and Hoke county district.
We will likely know by tomorrow whether that lead will hold up. At 10 a.m., Robeson County’s elections board is scheduled to meet to decide on the provisional ballots still pending. Scotland County’s board will do the same at 1 p.m.
I’ve been asked a few times whether I think the race could flip. I’ve generally said I would be surprised but not shocked, given what just happened. With so much at stake, though, I wanted to see what the likelihood was in a more scientific way.
So I went through the state’s provisional-ballot file this morning to get a better sense of what is left.
My read is that Britt remains better positioned. Hamm has a path to flip the race, but it would require an unusually large number of provisional ballots to be accepted — and then win an unusually large percentage of thos…
