My predictions for 2024 statewide races

Our model predicts a slight shift toward Republicans in down-ballot statewide races — with some major caveats

There are plenty of pollsters tracking North Carolina’s presidential contest and the race for governor¹. Down-ballot statewide races get a lot less attention, but still matter a whole heck of a lot.

So I built a model that takes into account historical voting patterns and changes in party registration to predict how down-ballot statewide races could fare in 2024.

The results: Republicans should continue to dominate statewide down-ballot races in 2024 — and the margins could even grow a little bit larger.

This shouldn’t be a huge surprise. Statewide races have overwhelmingly tilted toward Republicans in the last two cycles, with Republicans currently holding:

• 6 of 10 Council of State positions

• 5 out of 7 Supreme Court seats

• 11 out of 15 Court of Appeals seats

With some exceptions, Republicans tended to win low-information down-ballot races in 2020 by margins between 51-49 and 52-48.

However, Democrats have long predicted that demographic shifts — like rapidly growing urban and suburban areas and declining populations in some rural counties — will eventually turn North Carolina blue. Gov. Roy Cooper has also recruited millions of dollars in national Democratic money into state races to try to flip more blue.

That might happen at some point, though I think broader national trends will play more of a role than demography and ad dollars. But in any case, it’s not likely to be this year.

Here’s why.

Looking at voter registration changes

The core of my model looks at changes in voter registration between this year and the last presidential election cycle. Party registration is still the clearest predictor of how a person will vote, and these numbers also give you a good sense of population inflows and outflows.

At first glance, the overall changes seem pretty straightforward. Democratic registration has continued to decline, with unaffiliated increases matching it roughly one for one. But of course, you can’t draw the inference that all of these former Democrats simply moved over to unaffiliated.

Here’s a highlight of the changes in major segments of the electorate.

This data was compiled from a full county-by-county database I put together. You can see and sort the full dataset here.

To create the prediction model, I combined this data with voting results and voter turnout percentages by party affiliation from 2020. I used the lieutenant governor race county-by-county figures as a proxy for down-ballot races as a whole, since it is pretty darn close to the midpoint of the full slate.

From all that data, I approximated a percentage for each county of how unaffiliated voters there likely split. Finally, I applied the formula that predicted the 2020 data to the new, 2024 data.

There are a couple huge caveats here.

Before we get to the results of the model, I want to talk about its limitations.

First off, it in no way applies to either the presidential race or the gubernatorial race. These are different in kind and have their own dynamics. You might even throw the attorney general race in there, too, but to a lesser extent.

Instead, this model is intended to set a baseline — like a generic ballot question on a poll.

The model also relies on assumptions about how registered Republicans and Democrats vote that don’t always hold true. The unaffiliated split model isn’t bulletproof either, but it should be reasonably accurate. For example, my model predicts that Henderson County unaffiliated voters probably break Republican by a 60/40 margin, while in Guilford County it’s likely the opposite.

Finally, voter turnout remains a big variable. The 2020 election was during COVID lockdowns and relied heavily on absentee-by-mail balloting. Turnout percentages were unusually high, and I’d expect them to be down slightly this year. I took a haircut off of turnout percentages to account for this, but the end result could be different. The model also does not take into account voting difficulties in mountain counties affected by Hurricane Helene.

So what does the model show?

My model predicts that the average statewide down-ballot election will tilt slightly more toward Republicans in 2024, with an estimated margin of 52.3% to 47.7%. Under my model, this is the predicted outcome for relatively low-information, low-dollar races like that for labor commissioner, state auditor and appellate court judge.

Based on all this, I predict that Republicans complete another clean sweep of judicial races, which would give the GOP 6 out of 7 Supreme Court seats and 12 out of 15 appellate court seats.

The Council of State is a bit trickier. I believe Republicans will hold on to a net 6 of 10 Council of State offices² — with the AG race being a toss-up.

Where do you think it will shake out? Use the poll below and hit reply to send me an email with your thoughts.

Image generated with AI

NYT blames General Assembly’s building standard laws for Helene damage

When this New York Times piece — How the North Carolina Legislature Left Homes Vulnerable to Helene (gift link) — hit my inbox, my first thought was that it had to be a partisan hack job with no real value. After reading it, I found that it is, in fact, a partisan hack job — but it does raise some interesting questions worth addressing.

The premise of the story is that the N.C. Home Builders Association has lobbied the General Assembly effectively enough over the last decade and a half to stymie efforts to make homes safer. It then criticizes the legislature for not adopting more statewide flood-prevention standards, instead deferring to local jurisdictions.

As is so often the case, the actual body of the story comes nowhere close to justifying the headline. It also relies heavily on “experts” with their own agendas. The primary source works for a green building engineering firm that would stand to make a lot of money from the building code adjustments she recommends.

The reporting also does not go the next crucial step toward actually being worthwhile: Are local building codes in the North Carolina mountains actually adequate? I don’t know, and neither does the New York Times. But it’s worth figuring out.

Here’s how much money door knockers make

I’ve already gotten a few visitors at my door to encourage me to vote, and you can expect more of them once early voting begins. Both Republicans and Democrats are actively hiring door knockers (usually called canvassers or sometimes “field organizers”) across North Carolina.

In most cases, these door knockers are paid between $20 and $25 per hour.

Republican job postings I’ve seen list a salary of $44,000 per year, which comes out to $21 per hour. Another listing puts the figure at $20 to $30 per hour, depending on experience.

Democratic door-knocking company The Outreach Team pays folks $22 to $23.50 per hour, while a state Democratic Party “distributed organizer” job posting lists the pay at $20 per hour with a 55-hour work week.

Important reads

• The Childcare Subsidies Will Continue Until Morale Improves (Oren Cass/Understanding America). A nuanced take on how the childcare subsidy discussion ignores parent preferences.

• State lawmakers pass $273M relief bill (Mountain Updates/Charlotte Ledger)

• High Country NC Tourism Openings & Closures (High Country Host)

• Why you should mostly ignore "internal polls" (Nate Silver)

Top spenders on digital last week

Before we get to the charts, a few nuggets that don’t show up in them:

• The makers of that anti-Mark Robinson AI parody ad dropped more than $26,000 promoting it on Facebook last week.

• The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee ran about $18,000 worth of Facebook ads against Laurie Buckhout.

Poll Results: Longleaf Politics readers like TV ads

Here are the results to last week’s question: Is it worthwhile for down-ballot statewide candidates to run TV ads?

• Yes, any TV is better than none: 42%

• Yes, but only if you can buy enough: 30%

• No, money is best spent elsewhere: 27%

So nearly three-quarters poll-takers believe in the power of TV ads. And it seems more and more Council of State candidates do, too.

In most cases, I don’t think it’s worthwhile for down-ballot candidates to invest in TV ads. Videos, yes, but the cost of distribution on broadcast television is just way too high. Unless, of course, you can flood the airwaves.

Question of the Week

What are the best North Carolina political ads — mailers, social media posts, or videos — that you’ve seen so far this year?

Send them my way: andrew[at]longleafpol.com or just hit reply.

1. For the record, I think Trump will take North Carolina for a third time and that Josh Stein will handily win the governor’s race. It won’t be a double-digit margin like some of the polls show, but could be about 5-6 points.

2. While this is the same number as before, there’s actually some switching. I predict Republicans will lose the superintendent of public instruction seat, but pick up the state auditor seat.