A powerful new origin story for N.C. candidates

North Carolina's Helene recovery mistakes will drive a new crop of candidates

Superheroes all have origin stories, and so do the best political candidates.

By that I mean a simple, authentic and powerful answer to the question that trips up so many people running for office: Why are you running, and why now?

The classic example is the former soldier who emerged from the military with a love of country and an inclination to service. There are too many of these messages to count, but here’s a good one from Rep. Allen Chesser.

More recently, there’s been a wave of candidates who have run for office inspired by the COVID-era school closures. My mind immediately goes to Moms for Liberty-endorsed candidates for school board — more successful nationally than in North Carolina, but some General Assembly members fall into this camp as well.

The messy Hurricane Helene recovery will be the next source of political candidates

I predict that come November for municipal elections and 2026 for state ones, there will be a small but sizable crop of first-time candidates inspired to run for office to help fix North Carolina’s horrendous disaster recovery process.

Buncombe County will likely be the battleground, with Watauga potentially a secondary area. Most other mountain-region seats are held by Republicans where it will be hard to make this a differentiating issue.

Already, Weaverville’s Matt Van Swol has said on X that he’ll be running for office, but hasn’t decided which one yet. He’s amassed a gigantic following for his steady advocacy for the region.

He may be the first, but he almost certainly will not be the last.

Quick hits

• My first N&O/Observer column last week was about the Charlotte transit plan and how the General Assembly can step in, fix it up, and build a real asset for North Carolina. Read the full article here: Republicans can save Charlotte from itself on transit

• My second column tackled property tax relief for people who lost their homes to Hurricane Helene. Florida, Texas and Louisiana offer exemptions or refunds — and North Carolina should, too.

• I published a special report on the 2024 candidates who overperformed and underperformed compared with their party’s presidential candidate. In the interest of full transparency, I wanted to give you a heads up that I deleted the chart of biggest underperformers that appeared in the original version. Too many of them had split precinct issues skewing the data.
  
  Analyzing the precinct-by-precinct numbers is about the limit of my data skills, though I’d love to expand my horizons. Are any of you data experts who are willing to point me in the right direction on how to learn?

• Here’s an eye-opening stat from the Differentiators Data folks I found published in Business North Carolina magazine: Democratic statewide candidates raised about 3 times as much as their Republican rivals in 2024. In 2016, the Democratic candidates raised about 1.5 times as much. A lot of this, I have to imagine, comes down to small-dollar donations. Democrats have a much more robust program here, and it’s a top issue that Republican digital strategists are trying to solve.

Important reads

• 'Something told me to turn around': State lawmaker recounts fiery rescue (WRAL)

• NCGOP chairman Jason Simmons seeking another term as party leader (Anderson Alerts)

• Trump names GOP’s Whatley, 3 more from NC to help review FEMA after saying he may end it (N&O)

• Trump’s DOT: Want highways and transit? Get married, have babies (WFAE)

Top spenders on social media this week

Question of the week

Last week, I asked you if you subscribe to the News & Observer or Charlotte Observer, in light of my new regular column in those pages. About half of you (49%) said no, with another 30% saying that you used to. Just 21% said yes.

This week: I’m getting ready to start a new series for Premium subscribers that will do a deep dive into the messaging and communication strategies of successful candidates. Who would you like to see first?