N.C. early voting numbers could pose a problem for Democrats
Hurricane-damaged areas aren't seeing a big drop-off in voting — except for Buncombe County. Wake, Meck are down a bunch, too
For the first time in two decades, North Carolina Republicans are voting early in greater numbers than their Democratic counterparts. This is undoubtedly a good thing for the GOP, as it reduces the risk of disruptions on Election Day.
Vote-shifting alone shouldn’t make a huge net difference when all the ballots are cast. But the early voting data does show some worrying trends for Democrats:
Hurricane-damaged areas are not showing a disproportionate drop-off in early voting, with one outlier: Deep-blue Buncombe County.
Votes in Democrat strongholds Wake County and Mecklenburg County are significantly below other parts of the state.
It’s easy to read too much into this data1. But it’s almost certainly causing heartburn for Democratic consultants right now.
Let’s dive in.
First, here’s a look at turnout percentage by county through the first week of early voting this year.
There is nothing too unusual here. The 2020 map is virtually identical to this one, and you can look at it here if you’d like.
What’s more interesting is the map of turnout percentage changes between 2024 and 2020. Because absentee-by-mail ballots were so front-loaded in the calendar during the 2020 cycle, most counties are registering declines from then to now.
The overall statewide vote difference was about 7.5%, or about 500,000 votes, through the end of the first week of early voting. If a county has a drop less than that, it means it’s performing better than average. If the vote total has actually gone up, that’s pretty remarkable. And if the decline is in double-digits, that’s notable, too. Take a look.
A few small, deep-red counties have actually increased turnout between 2020 at this stage and 2024. This is likely a reflection of vote shifting, as Republicans increasingly vote early rather than wait for Election Day. Republicans were also more hesitant to vote by mail in 2020.
Look at the urban counties, too. Wake, Mecklenburg, Durham and Orange counties are all showing larger-than-average declines.
Finally, look at western North Carolina. Several of the counties that experienced the worst damage from Hurricane Helene are showing steeper drop-offs in early voting numbers, despite the state’s best efforts to make it easier for them to vote.
Henderson County has shown a big drop. But Buncombe County is by far the biggest county in the area, and the only Democrat one. It’s also the biggest outlier — which could mean big trouble for statewide Democrat candidates.
A closer look at Buncombe County
To get a better gauge at what’s happening in Buncombe County, I analyzed more layers of county-specific return data. It shows what you might expect: The number of registered Democrats who have banked votes so far has fallen more precipitously than other voting groups.
While Buncombe is a deep-blue county overall, it has its own urban/rural divide. So I also looked at the difference in voting by town and by ZIP code. The decline in voting from Asheville mailing addresses makes up more than half of the county’s overall decline.
It also appears that the more urban Asheville areas are showing a bigger drop-off than outlying parts of the county.
Unsurprisingly, this map matches up pretty evenly with the status of water systems in Buncombe County. You can’t expect people to return home if there’s no water, and there are a lot more hoops to jump through to vote if you’re not at home2.
What this means
North Carolina statewide elections are often decided by just a few thousand votes, so any change in voting behavior has the potential to flip the final results.
One big question: Are these differences just a function of a shift in voting methods? Or is there a lack of enthusiasm among Democrats, as well.
Another major X factor is the impact of hurricane damage. Going into election season, I wasn’t sure which party would be hurt the worst. The conventional wisdom was that Republicans stood to lose more votes, since so much of western North Carolina votes for the GOP. U.S. Rep. Andy Harris (R-Maryland) even floated the absurd idea of casting North Carolina’s electoral votes for Donald Trump regardless of the vote totals.
After a week of early voting, it’s still not 100% clear what the answer is. Some 44,000 absentee-by-mail ballots are still outstanding in the emergency declaration area, and more early voting locations are still opening. Asheville City Schools are only getting back in session today, which could lead to a wave of voting. It’s entirely possible that Buncombe County voters are just getting a late start, along with Wake and Mecklenburg.
At this stage in the cycle, campaigns are in pure get-out-the-vote (GOTV) mode. They’re closely watching early voting numbers, and so should you.
Can we please do the next round of hurricane relief in public?
The General Assembly returned last week for a one-day session, passing another $604 million of Hurricane Helene recovery money. It was swiftly signed into law, but not without some controversy. The day before, Gov. Roy Cooper's administration put forward its version of a recovery plan, proposing about $3.9 billion in spending.
Cooper’s plan isn’t terrible on its face, though it feels like he wants to go to the same old political well: Put forward a mega-sized spending plan, and then complain when the General Assembly takes a more prudent path. But $3.9 billion, the entirety of the state’s reserve fund, is way too much money to give the executive branch right now. Cooper’s recovery office has a $175 million hole and there are still 1,600+ families still waiting on assistance they've been approved for in 2018. This administration hasn’t shown it can use money effectively.
However, I also agree with some legislators on both sides of the aisle who say the General Assembly is not doing enough, quickly enough. Perhaps more troubling is this detail, as reported by The News & Observer. Emphasis is mine.
Asked by reporters about Democratic involvement, Moore said Republican leaders “received input from members on both sides of the aisle,” but that staff were more involved than lawmakers themselves in deciding on details. Most Republican House members had only seen the bill the night before, he said.
This style of legislating has been the modus operandi for General Assembly leaders for years now, but can we please stop doing it? For the next hurricane recovery package, let’s put a bill out in public at least a week ahead of time and let’s all take a good, long look before passing it.
House Republicans putting big money into Rep. Ken Fontenot campaign
You can tell a lot about what races party leaders are worried about by where they put their money. And this year, it appears that N.C. House Republicans are concerned about Rep. Ken Fontenot’s Wilson seat. The NC House Republican Campaign Committee just transferred $125,000 in last-minute cash into his campaign account, according to a 48-hour report filed with the state. That brings the total investment from this committee to $441,000 for the cycle.
This appears to be the biggest single expenditure since the House Republicans put $195,000 into former Rep. Jon Hardister’s campaign in October 2020. It also appears to be the biggest investment in a single campaign in the committee’s history.
The NC House Republican Campaign Committee is essentially a clearinghouse for tight General Assembly races. Big fundraisers like former Rep. Jason Saine and House Speaker Tim Moore transfer huge amounts of money into the committee, which then disperses it to members in need.
Fontenot does seem to be on the hot seat. He’s up against stiff competition in Democrat Dante Pittman, one of the bigger spenders on that side of the aisle.
Two former governors call for respect of the political process
This may be an unpopular opinion, but I love it when all of the living former presidents get together to do something. We don’t see this with North Carolina governors nearly enough.
But former Govs. Mike Easley and Jim Martin just teamed up for a video asking North Carolinians to respect the political process. It comes from the far-left group Common Cause, but it’s still worth a watch.
Top spenders on social media last week
The final spending push has begun. Republican attorney general candidate Dan Bishop put a ton more money into Facebook ads (up 300% week-over-week) and went live on YouTube advertising for the first time last week, while Democrat AG candidate Jeff Jackson doubled his YouTube spend.
Longleaf Politics readers are early voters
Last week, we asked you when you planned to vote. Overwhelmingly, you said that you’d vote during the early voting period — just not on the first day. Here were the results:
Later in early voting: 65%
First day of early voting: 14%
Election Day: 14%
Absentee by mail: 7%
Question of the Week: Do you split your ballot between parties?
The 2020 election was an extremely weird one, since the state was still largely locked down under COVID restrictions. The volume of absentee-by-mail ballots dwarfs anything ever seen before, and likely that we’ll ever see again.
While North Carolina is setting in-person early voting records this year, there were still 500,000 more total votes registered through the first week of early voting in 2020 than there are this year — all due to absentee-by-mail ballots. To take this into account, all of my maps and charts are relative to each other.
However, it is possible. The State Board of Elections is making a huge push to get Buncombe County voters who are displaced to cast ballots by mail or to bring a filled-out ballot to a different county’s polling place.
Interesting and useful data on NC elections so far and current state of the vote.