3 potential future kings of the N.C. GOP consultant class
The 'data guy' behind Tillis, Burr and McCrory has long been considered the most prominent GOP consultant in North Carolina. That could change next year.
When we talk about political machines or political dynasties, we usually talk about elected officials — governors, senators and the like. But consultants play a big role, too.
For the last decade, Morgan Jackson of Nexus Strategies has been the undisputed king of Democratic consultants in North Carolina. He’s advised former Gov. Roy Cooper, Gov. Josh Stein, Attorney General Jeff Jackson and numerous others. If you’re serious about winning high office in North Carolina, you go to Nexus Strategies.
The Republican side is a little murkier, but if you had to pick a leader of the GOP consultant class right now, you’d have to say Paul Shumaker of Capitol Communications.
Shumaker started his political career as a close advisor of Gov. Jim Martin, and has since orchestrated the campaigns of former U.S. Sen. Richard Burr, former Gov. Pat McCrory, former Labor Commissioner Cherie Berry, former House Speaker Tim Moore and current U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis.
He’s been a key figure the ascendency of the Republican Party in North Carolina, and when he speaks publicly, I listen carefully.
But like candidates, consultants rise and fall, as well.
Brad Hays (Martin’s advisor), Tom Ellis and Carter Wrenn (both Sen. Jesse Helms advisors) gave way to Shumaker, and eventually Shumaker will cede his position, too.
This could very well happen in 2026. As everyone knows by now, Tillis is up for re-election in what promises to be another bruising campaign.
If Tillis is successful, Shumaker could keep the crown for a while longer — or it might pass on to Jordan Shaw, another Tillis advisor who’s extremely smart and capable.
But if he’s not, the torch will have to pass outside the Tillis orbit. Here’s who could grab it.
Three potential future kings of GOP consulting in North Carolina
“King” is kind of a murky title, but I think of it this way: The king (or queen) of Republican consulting is the person with the best track record and the biggest-name clients. They’re the first choice for candidates who are serious about high office — especially governor and senator.
Here are my three picks for the most likely future kings of GOP consulting.
No. 1: Jonathan Felts
After roles in the Bush White House, Felts served briefly in the McCrory administration and then set up his own shop — The Indie Group. It took awhile to land a major successful candidate, but he certainly got a big fish: U.S. Sen. Ted Budd.
During that campaign, Felts orchestrated a major coup: a Trump endorsement in a competitive primary. Then Budd defeated Felts’s former boss en route to a Senate seat.
Now Felts’s stock has never been higher. He worked on the successful congressional campaigns of Addison McDowell and Brad Knott (both of whom faced primary battles) and even has his own cool nickname — the “Sultan of Snark.”
No. 2: David Capen
Capen Consulting has more clients than anyone else in N.C. politics, according to a Longleaf Politics analysis. Most of them are on the smaller side, but that’s kind of how this business works. If becoming the king of consulting is like winning the lottery, Capen has the most tickets.
The one most likely to pay off quickly: Labor Commissioner Luke Farley, a truly impressive politico who’s quickly becoming a leader on the Council of State.
No. 3: Jim Blaine
The former Sen. Phil Berger chief of staff and North Carolina’s “51st Senator” has perhaps the most impressive set of credentials on the list, and a forward-looking business plan. Differentiators Data is a huge asset, and the company’s fleece vest is a status symbol in Raleigh.
Six months ago, Blaine would have been higher on this list, but client Dan Bishop’s loss in the attorney general race was a major setback. That’s the nature of the beast. However, his other clients on the Council of State did win — State Auditor Dave Boliek and State Treasurer Brad Briner.
Blaine can maintain a successful and lucrative business serving as the powerhouse behind the Republican majority in the General Assembly — which I’d probably do if I were him rather than try to become the new consulting king.
What they all need
The white whale for North Carolina consultants is obviously the governorship. The state’s top executive position has been largely out of reach, but it provides an incredible platform for building a movement — and a consulting business.
Whoever gets there first is bound to win the crown.
At a premium
If you’re not a Premium subscriber, here’s what you missed this week.
Quick hits
I had two Observer/N&O columns publish this week. The first took a look at the push to make North Carolina government more efficient: Sic the DOGE on North Carolina
The second was a lot different, but I’m pretty proud of it: Charlotte Catholic wants to be more Catholic. That shouldn’t be a bad thing
Freshman legislator Mike Schietzelt is on an absolute tear on X. I love his approach to social media. Extremely bullish on the guy.
The honeymoon phenomenon is real. Meredith College came out with a poll that gives us a first look at Gov. Josh Stein’s approval rating, and it’s extraordinarily high: 58% approval, with 19% disapproval (+39). His predecessor was typically above water, but peaked at around 53% approval.
Important reads
Durham County district attorney comes to the office roughly half of work days (WRAL)
Out-of-state donors account for 70% of NC Democratic Party’s fundraising in 2024 cycle (Carolina Journal)
Advice from a high-level staffer for a Senator on contacting your representatives (LinkedIn)
Top spenders on social media this week
Question of the week
Last week, I asked you who our first messaging deep dive should be on. The result was overwhelming: Attorney General Jeff Jackson. Good, because that’s who I wanted to do first.
This week: