N.C. Republicans still have a suburban problem
N.C. Republicans still have a suburban problem
But outside of Mecklenburg and Wake, blue outposts are drying up
In any other year, you’d call the 2022 election a great one for Republicans. The GOP comfortably won the two biggest prizes of the night — the U.S. Senate seat and control of the N.C. Supreme Court.
But with the national headwinds blowing firmly in the GOP’s favor, Democrats feared getting wiped out in North Carolina. That didn’t happen. Divided government will continue: Republicans narrowly picked up a supermajority in the state Senate, but failed to garner enough seats in the state House to override Gov. Roy Cooper’s veto. Democrat Wiley Nickel also won the only true toss-up Congressional district.
The reason why: Suburban districts.
To win the 72 seats needed for a supermajority in the N.C. House, Republicans needed to win in suburban areas, small cities, and historically blue outposts in rural areas. They got two out of the three.
Republican Timothy Reeder defeated Democratic Rep. Brian Farkas in Pitt County, home to Greenville. This was a D+3 district.
Allen Chesser ousted Democratic Rep. James Galliard in Nash County, the Rocky Mount area (D+3).
Former Representative Stephen Ross took back his Alamance County seat against freshman Rep. Ricky Hurtado (D+3).
Ken Fontenot edged out Democratic Rep. Linda Cooper-Suggs in Wilson (D+3).
Bill Ward ousted Democratic Rep. Howard Hunter III in northeastern North Carolina (D+2).
That’s a lot of incumbents going down in small cities and rural areas. But the suburban districts remained out of reach.
Former Rep. Bill Brawley lost again in his bid to take back the Matthews-area seat in Mecklenburg County against Democrat Laura Budd.
Democratic Reps. Terence Everitt and Joe John held off Republican challengers Fred Von Canon and former Rep. Marilyn Avila in Wake County.
Brian Echevarria lost in Cabarrus County to Democrat Diamond Staton-Williams.
What does this mean?
You can’t separate what happened with North Carolina’s elections from the national picture. Republicans at all levels largely were content to point at the unpopular Biden administration, high inflation, and a looming recession as their case for election. This worked just fine in areas that already lean red, and North Carolina is still a red state.
But Democrats were able to point to something, too. Voting Republican was perceived in some quarters as an endorsement of Trumpism, and that’s simply toxic in suburban North Carolina. No amount of national tide is going to be enough to pull the GOP to victory in suburban districts while former President Donald Trump is in the picture.
Republicans also failed to make an affirmative case for why they should be elected to the General Assembly. I watch this stuff closely, and even I have no idea what the GOP agenda would have been should Republicans have taken the supermajority in the legislature. This opened the door for Gov. Roy Cooper’s money and message machine to boost Democrats running in suburban districts, where voters are wary of more conservative legislation on issues like abortion.
There is really just one way out of divided government.
That’s a Republican winning the 2024 governor’s race. It is going to take a candidate who can cast a compelling vision for the state and make the case for how conservative policies will create better schools, safer streets and more economic opportunity. That race starts today.
Post Mortem is we don’t have a good face to get voters from, last night at a polling place I hung out with a Democrat who told me that they had had since this summer at least three voter registration events in the area and I’m talking between cornelius Davidson a Huntersville awake they aim for a lot more they hit every festival they hit every farmers market they actually just went by a food truck a couple times and set up a table and registered voters we don’t do that we just are complacent so while the Democrats are piling up voters to vote for their candidates we don’t.
We also need to have good campaign managers once with a winning track record not a president of a women’s club who is losing membership daily and when she holds a candidates form at the fancy country club there are more candidates than they are guests that’s sad and we also have the same thing with a couple other Republican clubs they pick a person they don’t vet them to see if they know what they are running for and then they guess they tried and true and success of the party for the spot on the ticket or should I say the winning spot on the ticket .
For example if you are going to endorse a school board candidate make sure the school board candidate has done his homework to know that federal funds cannot be read allocated from where the federal government has been picked for the money otherwise it’s a federal offense and people go to jail you don’t wake up one day and say my kids are in school I’m going to run for school board you do your homework first and you and that’s one thing that the Republicans in Lake Norman didn’t do a pick the guy Because they thought he was cute and charming and a breath of fresh air when he was on educated in what the school board really does and how funds county state all the towns and federal funds especially are used and applied all he had to do was do a little research which he didn’t and he never apologized or said whoops my bad I said this that we could take federal funds from what they were earmarked for and use it for what I want . Thank God he lost but he lost to a Democrat and we lost a voice on an all Democrat school board now because of what the Republicans and Lake Norman did so when something is wrong with the scores don’t complain you voted for the wrong person.
Campaign managers if I had a serious race I’m too old to run right now I’m all of his old is Donald Trump and he shouldn’t run anymore either but if I were running I would pick a experienced winning campaign manager and our Republican county commissioner district one candidate didn’t do that And look what happened to him the Republican school board candidate picked the same person and he lost as well you don’t pick somebody because they offer you pick the right person and if I were running I would pick and I hope you’re ready for this one Frank Hill not only is Frank Hill experienced smart astute he knows how to run is he a little more expensive than the losing campaign managers probably yes but do you have a better chance fighting in a Democrat world to win and that’s what we need .
With Dale Fawell and Mark Robinson as the candidates for Governor, what chance do Republicans have for leading NC? What is your take on the 2024 Governor’s campaign?