Does anybody even want a Republican governor?

There's a reason why Republicans have a bad track record in executive races. The most powerful members of the party don't really want to win them.

Like most of us who grew up around here, I’ve been a Braves fan since the Maddux and Jones era. But I’ve always wanted North Carolina to land a Major League Baseball team of its own — and I think it might actually happen.

Charlotte has flirted with the idea for years, but the real momentum is in Raleigh. Carolina Hurricanes owner Tom Dundon now publicly supports bringing a team to the Triangle, and there’s a fantastic grassroots effort behind it, too.

In Charlotte, there’s simply no big-name leader stepping up and no cohesive effort to land a team. It doesn’t seem like the city even wants one anymore. And when the MLB finally gets around to expanding, I think that’s going to make a big difference.

It’s the same story in North Carolina politics. To win something as big as the governor’s mansion, someone has to lead the charge. A person with power has to want it to happen. Right now, Republicans just don’t have that.

Last week, I wrote at length about the long-running political machine that has kept a virtually unbroken streak of Democrats in North Carolina’s governor and attorney general offices. That explains why Democrats win. But it doesn’t cover why, exactly, Republicans haven’t built a similar infrastructure.

I think the answer is pretty simple, here, too: The most powerful Republicans in North Carolina don’t really want one of their own to win.

"I think, frankly, they prefer not to have a Republican governor," said The Assembly political reporter Joe Killian at an election recap conference last week. He pointed to the infighting and legal battles that marked the single-term McCrory administration. "It may be better for them, actually, to have a Democrat in the governor's mansion to sort of act as a political foil."

He’s half right. General Assembly leaders absolutely prefer a Democrat as governor, but it’s not really about having someone to rally against.

The General Assembly has long fought to maintain its dominance over state politics, no matter the party of the governor¹. But for a Republican-led legislature, it’s just easier to have a Democrat in the governor’s mansion. The General Assembly majority can run the show in Raleigh without needing to feign deference to the executive.

A Republican governor? That just dilutes their power.

Instead, the most powerful Republicans in North Carolina spend a lot of time and effort raising money for the races the General Assembly cares about — the ones that preserve their majorities and help conservative judges get elected at the Supreme Court and Court of Appeals. Money flows freely between top legislative fundraisers, the state GOP, the House Republican caucus, and judicial candidates.

This is important, to be sure, but there’s no parallel effort for executive branch offices.

Here are some numbers that make it painfully clear. Both Democrats and Republicans have committees that can raise unlimited amounts of money from donors to support Council of State candidates, from governor to treasurer.

Managed by powerful Democratic consultant and Gov. Roy Cooper ally Morgan Jackson, the N.C. Democratic Leadership Committee raised $27 million in the third quarter, according to the most recent state filings, and spent $35 million. In the same time period, the Republican Council of State Committee scraped together just $5 million and spent $6 million.

The governor’s office matters

Yes, the General Assembly has the bulk of the power in North Carolina, but the executive branch still matters. The governor oversees the agencies that make this state run — or not.

Just in the last few years, we’ve seen rampant failures in disaster response and the unemployment system, major cost overruns at the Department of Transportation and shady dealings through the Department of Environmental Quality. Some agencies are severely understaffed, while others have a good bit of bloat.

In an interview last week with WRAL, outgoing state treasurer and brief gubernatorial candidate Dale Folwell lamented the missed opportunity of 2024.

"My reputation is, I love saving money and I love fixing things,” he said. “And there's lots that needs to be fixed at DMV, and DOT, at DHHS, and all the other agencies that report to the governor."

Folwell is right. The governor’s job is to govern, and North Carolina needs conservative leadership that’s willing to tackle executive branch issues.

Republicans can’t just keep ceding this ground. But without a concerted effort — without someone to lead the charge — the opportunity to win the governor’s office will continue to slip away. Some years, like this one, it will be because the party nominates a bad candidate. In other years, like 2020, it will be because a good candidate gets too little support.

In the same interview, Folwell said he believed 2024 was the last chance to elect a Republican governor in his lifetime.

That may very well be true — unless somebody steps up to lead.

Important reads

• Campaign to elect Democrats didn't give money to three of party's statewide candidates (WUNC)

• Now is not the time to start the 2026 campaign (PoliticsNC)

What comes next for Mark Robinson?

Last week, I asked you what you thought Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson would do next, after getting blown out in his campaign for governor. Here were the results.

• Fade into obscurity: 67%

• Become political speaker/commenter: 20%

• Run for U.S. Senate: 7%

• Run for U.S. House: 2%

Judging by Robinson’s social media activity over the last week, I think that’s wishful thinking on the majority’s part. My money is that he’ll seek the nomination for U.S. Senate in 2026.

Question of the Week

1. It’s fascinating to read interviews with Govs. Jim Holshouser and Bob Scott on this topic. “There was always a kind of tension between the legislature and the executive branch. It didn't have anything to do with political parties,” Holshouser, the first Republican governor since Reconstruction, had to say.