When challenging an incumbent actually works

Why similar dissatisfaction with Thom Tillis and Phil Berger could have radically different results

Ever since President Trump first came on the scene in 2015, there’s been a strong “throw the bums out” and “drain the swamp” mentality in Republican politics.

It’s a super common phenomenon, almost unavoidable when the party is undergoing a massive coalition shift like the GOP has done over the last decade — moving from a Reaganite party to an America First party.

And it’s super evident in North Carolina right now. Despite plenty of wins, there’s a powerful undercurrent of dissatisfaction with GOP leadership. Some of it is legitimate, and some of it is short-sighted.

But I wanted to touch on this as a follow-up to my piece last night on the Sheriff Sam Page vs. Sen. Phil Berger challenge and my ongoing writing about U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis.

On its face, there are a lot of similarities in the dynamics driving the grassroots frustration with the two men. But the results, I think, are going to be radically different.

Incumbents don’t lose just because people are mad

There’s this persistent ide…