A way-too-early prediction of the 2026 General Assembly election
Is a blue wave coming? Democrats could make modest gains — if they recruit the right challengers
Every two years around this time, North Carolina politics nerds get a little early Christmas present: a fresh release of the Civitas Partisan Index from the John Locke Foundation.
It’s the best tool out there for understanding the landscape of General Assembly elections in North Carolina. And with municipal elections just behind us, the timing couldn’t be better.
Democrats swept most of last week’s local races, even in places where they’re technically nonpartisan. In south Charlotte, they flipped a long-held Republican seat on the city council. In Cary and other suburbs, they evicted Republicans from their formerly safe seats on town boards. Virginia and New Jersey predictably went blue in their state-level elections — but by wider margins than many expected.
So it’s no surprise the question I’ve been hearing the most is: Are we looking at another blue wave in 2026?
Let’s talk about that. But first — go read the CPI.
So… will there be a blue wave in 2026?
Yes. Probably. Kind of. But not nearly at the scale of 2018. That’s my primary takeaway from the new numbers from the John Locke Foundation. There are simply fewer seats actually in play.
In the 2018 cycle, the first mid-term election of the Trump era, Democrats picked up 10 seats in the N.C. House and six in the state Senate, breaking a Republican supermajority and setting up a legislative logjam for the next few bienniums. It was the biggest movement since Republicans flipped control of the General Assembly in the 2010 election.
But under the Biden administration and through redistricting, Republicans have clawed back many of those seats to garner a working supermajority again.
This year, Democrats undeniably have the wind at their back. Midterms under a Republican president tend to go their way, of course, and former Gov. Roy Cooper will be at the top of the ticket with a U.S. Senate campaign that’s going to flood the zone with money and turnout infrastructure. That alone could move a few close races in their direction.
But here’s the thing: There’s just not as much map left to flip.
The 2018 midterms already reshaped the suburbs. Democrats won the swing seats in Raleigh, Charlotte, and the Triad — and they’ve mostly held onto them ever since. That wasn’t a one-time surge. That was a realignment.
So yes, Democrats could make some gains in 2026. But it won’t be as dramatic as 2018 because the suburbs that shifted then never swung back. They’re settled.
Where Democrat gains could come
There are really only three suburban competitive districts left held by Republicans — the House seats held by Rep. Tricia Cotham in Mecklenburg, and the ones held by Reps. Mike Schietzelt and Erin Paré in Wake. Clearly, those are going to be a main focus in 2026.
Cotham is particularly vulnerable. She’s had the biggest target on her back for Democrats since switching parties in 2023, and now has the additional headwind of supporting a 1-cent sales tax referendum for transit that was soundly rejected by voters in her district last week (it passed anyway, but barely).
But for a true blue wave election to come to pass, Democrats would need to expand their competitiveness beyond the suburbs and into more exurban and micropolitan areas that have remained red.
The northeastern N.C. seat held by Rep. Bill Ward would be a natural place to look for Democrats. So, too, would be the Franklin/Vance county House seat held by Rep. Matthew Winslow and the Goldsboro-area seat held by Sen. Buck Newton, especially now that Democrats pioneered the campaign style there through the successful campaigns of Rep. Brian Cohn and Rep. Dante Pittman.
Of course, the Wilmington seat held by Sen. Michael Lee is a perennial target, too, and so are the swingy seats in both chambers from Cabarrus County.
My prediction as of today
A lot can happen over the next year, but I think candidate quality is going to be the primary factor in how the 2026 elections for General Assembly play out. Until we get through the March primaries and find out who Democrats choose to run in these districts, it’s hard to make solid predictions.
But you don’t read this newsletter for wishy-washy takes, so I’ll put some numbers on it.
In a base-case scenario, I envision Republicans losing 4 or 5 seats in the N.C. House and one or two seats in the Senate.
That’s half of what the GOP lost in 2018, and it would keep a solid Republican majority in the General Assembly — but not one that can easily override Gov. Josh Stein’s vetoes.
Is that a blue wave? Yes. Probably. Kind of.
Quick hits
I had the honor of being a guest on State Lines this week, where we talked local election results, National Guard in Charlotte, Lumbee recognition and more. You can watch the episode here.
For the newspaper, I wrote an election recap that focused on the Democratic Party’s gains — particularly in Mecklenburg County. Read it free with gift link here: Charlotte’s blue wave tells a national story on Donald Trump
I also wrote a column about State Auditor Dave Boliek, about how he’s reshaped the office and made it dramatically more useful for North Carolina. But his position overseeing elections also poses a big risk. Read free with gift link here: NC’s top watchdog is getting political buzz — and more scrutiny
Top spenders on social media last week
Question of the week
Last week, I asked you about Monroe Mayor Robert Burns and what his next steps should be. He announced the week before that he would not run for re-election, but would pursue higher office. Well, a plurality of you disagree with the strategy: 40% said he should change his mind and run for re-election as mayor.
This week, let’s talk about 2026. Do you see a blue wave coming?