How I read N.C. political polls

Dueling surveys in the Berger–Page race show why I care less about toplines and more about incentives

Everybody loves a good political poll, but they’re generally misunderstood. Polls matter not because they’ll tell you with scientific precision who’s winning a race, but because they are the best tool out there for shaping campaign and donor behavior.

Money is the oxygen of modern politics, and nobody wants to pour six or seven figures into a sure loser. National groups, especially, don’t do charity.

We learned that the hard way on the Dan Forest campaign for governor. We’d raised a good bit of money, but we were up against a fundraising juggernaut. We needed the Republican Governors Association to make a significant investment in advertising to help level the playing field.

The calvary never came, and it was mostly because of polls. The summer before the election, public polling consistently had us 10–12 points down against incumbent Gov. Roy Cooper. The RGA looked at the board, did the math, and invested elsewhere. They put more money into flipping Montana and kept some dry powder for …