My predictions for 2024 statewide races
Our model predicts a slight shift toward Republicans in down-ballot statewide races — with some major caveats
There are plenty of pollsters tracking North Carolina’s presidential contest and the race for governor1. Down-ballot statewide races get a lot less attention, but still matter a whole heck of a lot.
So I built a model that takes into account historical voting patterns and changes in party registration to predict how down-ballot statewide races could fare in 2024.
The results: Republicans should continue to dominate statewide down-ballot races in 2024 — and the margins could even grow a little bit larger.
This shouldn’t be a huge surprise. Statewide races have overwhelmingly tilted toward Republicans in the last two cycles, with Republicans currently holding:
6 of 10 Council of State positions
5 out of 7 Supreme Court seats
11 out of 15 Court of Appeals seats
With some exceptions, Republicans tended to win low-information down-ballot races in 2020 by margins between 51-49 and 52-48.
However, Democrats have long predicted that demographic shifts — like rapidly growing urban and suburban areas a…