N.C. early voting numbers could pose a problem for Democrats
Hurricane-damaged areas aren't seeing a big drop-off in voting — except for Buncombe County. Wake, Meck are down a bunch, too
For the first time in two decades, North Carolina Republicans are voting early in greater numbers than their Democratic counterparts. This is undoubtedly a good thing for the GOP, as it reduces the risk of disruptions on Election Day.
Vote-shifting alone shouldn’t make a huge net difference when all the ballots are cast. But the early voting data does show some worrying trends for Democrats:
Hurricane-damaged areas are not showing a disproportionate drop-off in early voting, with one outlier: Deep-blue Buncombe County.
Votes in Democrat strongholds Wake County and Mecklenburg County are significantly below other parts of the state.
It’s easy to read too much into this data1. But it’s almost certainly causing heartburn for Democratic consultants right now.
Let’s dive in.
First, here’s a look at turnout percentage by county through the first week of early voting this year.