How my predictions for 2025 panned out
In my defense, there was a lot of crazy stuff that happened.
We’ve officially entered the recap and review portion of the year.
Last year around this time, I put forward seven predictions for what I thought would happen in N.C. politics in 2025. You can read that piece here. It’s easy and safe to just throw predictions out there and never come back to them. But in the interest of full transparency for you, dear reader, I’m going to evaluate how my predictions held up.
Next week, I’ll bring you a fresh batch of predictions. I guarantee you that all of them will 100% come true.
Here’s how I fared with last year’s.
Roy Cooper and the U.S. Senate
My first prediction was that former Gov. Roy Cooper would, in fact, run for the U.S. Senate. You have to remember that at the time, this wasn’t a sure thing. U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis was still gearing up for his re-election bid, and Cooper was still getting hammered for his poor job with hurricane recovery. By February or March, I even thought that Cooper would stay out of the race.
Obviously, though, Cooper is now in the race. So I get full marks for this one. So do 81% of you who agreed with me.
Trump and Tillis
Next, I predicted that President Donald Trump would endorse Tillis to head off a divisive primary. That is decidedly not how things played out.
I actually think this would have happened eventually had Tillis not decided to drop out. The POTUS is nothing if not mercurial, and it wouldn’t have been too hard for Tillis to get back in his good graces by the end of the year.
This was perhaps the biggest surprise of the year in N.C. politics, so I won’t beat myself up over it.
Josh Stein vetoes
Here’s my most embarrassing miss. I said that Gov. Josh Stein would veto fewer than eight bills in his first year in office. The actual number was nearly twice that — 15. So far, eight of them have been overriden, so perhaps that should have been my prediction instead.
My reasoning was not completely off the mark, though. Stein has, in fact, taken a more conciliatory approach to politics than his predecessor, and I’ve even found myself speaking kindly of him this year from time to time. And yet, Stein is now on pace to veto more bills than record-breaking Cooper.
It’s an odd dynamic. Several of Stein’s vetoes were on flimsy grounds, as I wrote in the Observer back in June. Since August, Stein has been very low-key and hasn’t done really anything of note.
The budget
Here’s another one I didn’t see coming. I predicted that Stein would sign a budget into law. I obviously missed this one, but not because Stein vetoed it instead. There’s no budget at all!
I actually think that had the House and Senate been able to reach a compromise, Stein would have signed it. And in my defense, the General Assembly not getting a budget to the governor’s desk doesn’t appear to have ever happened in my lifetime.
Cecil Brockman’s retirement
I predicted that the Greensboro House Democrat would announce his retirement in 2025. That was correct, kind of. Instead of declining to run again, Brockman was arrested and charged with sex crimes with a minor. He then resigned his seat.
Phil Berger’s future
I came at this prediction from two angles. First, I said that Senate president pro tem Phil Berger would announce that he was retiring his leadership position at the end of this term. Then I said that “this will be his last biennium at the helm of the state Senate.”
On the first count, I was 100% wrong. On the second, I could still very well be right.
Rather than ride off into the sunset, Berger is waging a scorched-earth campaign against primary challenger Sheriff Sam Page. He’s spent more than $2 million already, with millions more lined up ahead of the March primary.
Berger is in real trouble, and may soon come to realize that my predicted path would have been the better one.
Hunt’s headlines
My last prediction was perhaps the most directionally wrong. I predicted that Lt. Gov. Rachel Hunt would use her new office to make national waves. Instead, we’ve heard basically zip from her all year. I thought she’d be more of an anti-Republican attack dog, and perhaps that will happen in 2026. But so far, I don’t think I’ve heard a single thing from the LG office.
Quick hits
Obviously, the Berger–Page primary is the biggest story in N.C. politics heading into 2026. In my first column of the week, I compared the race to a poker game. Sen. Berger’s allies tried to bury Sheriff Sam Page early with attack ads and outside money. Page didn’t fold.
Now there’s a new poll that shows Page up by double digits, even after Trump endorsed Berger and about $2 million got spent against Page. Did Page successfully call a bluff?
Read free with gift link: Phil Berger is playing poker in his primary. A new poll says it’s not working.The Governor, Jim Hunt, died Thursday at 88. In my latest column, I wrote that he didn’t just serve the state — he became the measuring stick for everyone who followed him. Read free with gift link: We still live in Jim Hunt’s North Carolina