The double-pocket button-up test
North Carolina’s executive politics are about trust, not heat
One of the most common questions I get is about North Carolina’s long-standing tradition of splitting tickets. If you’re reading this, you’re already well aware that our state typically votes Republican for president and U.S. Senate, but more often than not puts a Democrat in as governor and attorney general.
I have my standard answer, and used it once again in a Q&A I just did with the good folks over at Down from DC. They asked whether North Carolina voters will buck national trends again this year, and I told them this:
“We have a strong pragmatic streak that rewards competence. People here will put up with ideology in Washington, but when it comes to running North Carolina, they want someone who seems steady, capable and normal.”
This weekend gave us two examples that take that abstract theory and put it into practice.
First, the weather. I’m writing this as the ice comes down steadily across the state. Ahead of the storm, Gov. Josh Stein did the traditional pre-storm press conference at the Emergency Operations Center. If you’ve lived here long enough, you already know what he was wearing for it.
Double-pocket button-up. Long sleeves, slightly boxy. A stitched state patch on the chest. It’s not trying to be stylish; it’s trying to communicate something much more important: I am in charge.
Stein was fine in that setting. Not exactly inspiring, but not embarrassing. As I watched the livestream, I couldn’t help asking myself a question I think a lot of voters ask themselves subconsciously before casting a ballot.
Can you imagine Mark Robinson standing there in that shirt?
The answer is no, at least not with a straight face. That’s not a cheap shot, but simply the reality. Voters here are constantly running a little simulation in their heads. They want to know who they would trust to stand at the podium when the roads ice over, the power goes out, and the phones start lighting up. They may never say it, but they vote on it.
The second example came from Minnesota.
As you’ve likely heard, there was a shooting during a federal immigration enforcement operation, setting off the predictable yet destructive cycle. You can watch the video for yourself, so I’m not going to litigate what happened. I’ve got a ton to say about the broader immigration enforcement operation, and I’ll come back to it at some point soon.
But for now, I will say this: Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s response has been horrible and reckless. She immediately described it in the most incendiary terms, stomping on the Second Amendment and going far beyond what the available facts can support.
Gov. Tim Walz has been terrible, too. For weeks, he has continually inflamed tensions and turned Minnesota into a powder keg where violence was inevitable.
Say what you will about Stein, but he handled ICE’s operation in North Carolina a whole lot better than that.
And again, ask yourself: Can you imagine Mark Robinson handling this issue?
This is why North Carolina splits tickets. It’s honestly not that complicated. Voters go for the person they can picture in that double-pocket button-up handling a storm briefing on Friday and a Minnesota-style flashpoint on Sunday.
That’s the double-pocket button-up test. North Carolina administers it every time.
Mark Robinson helped folks during and after Helene. He was there, hands on, working. The media trashed him before, during, and after, unable to put their politics aside to recognize his efforts. He deserves credit for stepping up and contributing.