As best I can tell, what happens tonight has never happened before in North Carolina.
I cannot find another example of a major-party Congressional nominee winning a primary, withdrawing before the general election and being replaced by a district executive committee. There may be some obscure precedent buried in the archives. If you know of one, please send it my way.
For a few hours, the 61 Republicans choosing U.S. Rep. Chuck Edwards’s replacement will become something like Western North Carolina’s college of cardinals. And buckle up, because nobody seems to have any clue who the nominee will be.
The front-runner already dropped out
Until Saturday afternoon, I expected it to be a simple, short meeting without much drama. Republicans appeared to be coalescing around state Sen. Tim Moffitt, widely seen as the favorite.
My gut told me he was the safest choice, too. Then he took himself out of the running, a huge curveball in an already chaotic process.
I can’t really blame him. For the potential candidates, it is easy to see why this opportunity is a huge risk.
Sure, the nominee gets to skip most of the boring parts of running for Congress: a year of county dinners, endless fundraising calls and a bruising primary. Instead, the winner gets to jump straight into a competitive general election with baked-in media coverage and national attention.
But those boring parts serve a purpose. A normal campaign gives candidates time to build a staff, raise money, test a message and discover what their opponents plan to use against them. This nominee will have to do everything all at once and under immediate scrutiny.
Plus, the nominee inherits a three-month sprint against Democrat Jamie Ager, who has built a formidable campaign and a multimillion-dollar war chest. The race was already rated a toss-up before the House Ethics Committee released its report. Ager will be tough to beat, no matter who gets picked.
No clear choice
So that leaves us heading into the meeting with no real clue who will get the nod.
Late Sunday, a NC-11 executive committee member tweeted that Rep. Jen Balkcom was added to the potential nominee list. That makes her the leading candidate heading into tonight’s meeting.
But her election is far from a sure thing. All 61 committee members probably entered the weekend with a name or two in mind.
I’ve written before about why county GOP groups have so much drama. These groups have enough power that the outcomes matter, but they are small enough that political disagreements quickly become personal. Western North Carolina’s party meetings have had more than their share.
I am hoping this meeting will be different. Party insiders will have to put aside old rivalries and grievances. Not to get all hyperbolic about it, but the balance of power in the entire House could be at stake.
There will be no white smoke over the Buncombe County GOP headquarters tonight. But North Carolina — and quite a few people in Washington — will be watching to see who emerges.
I think the political leanings of your data might be slightly off (unless Michael Whatley has made a shift to the left)