People ask me constantly what I think about North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race. I usually give them a pessimistic answer.
At this point, the facts are pretty incontrovertible. Roy Cooper is ahead, Michael Whatley is badly outgunned financially and Republicans have spent months attacking Cooper’s record without changing many minds. Unless something radically changes, we’re gonna be faced with Senator Cooper next January.
Now before I criticize the former governor again, I realize that a lot of you probably disagree with me about Cooper, while others are simply tired of reading about him. I laid out my general stance on Cooper a year ago, and stand by it. But I can’t help myself from returning to the subject again.
When it comes to the state of the race, my friend Patrick Sebastian has a different take. He told Roll Call that Whatley can win if Republicans spend enough money to make it competitive. Cooper is formidable, but he has a “glass jaw.” It’s just that no one has ever had enough money to land the punch that breaks it.
I would like to believe that, but I’m simply not convinced.
More money would certainly help. But if it merely buys a louder version of the same attacks that have failed for the better part of a decade, I’m not sure it changes much. Perhaps Republicans do not simply need more money. Perhaps they need a different argument.
That became the subject of my Observer column last week: The question Republicans really need to start asking Roy Cooper. You can read it free through that gift link.
As regular readers know, I am a student of North Carolina political history. The column looks back at how Jesse Helms handled a similar problem against Jim Hunt in 1984. To win, Helms stopped fighting Hunt’s popular image as governor and nationalized the race instead.
Normal voters do not want to debate old vetoes, appointments and budget fights. The whole thing about the prisoner release, which I’ve written about at length, has completely bombed as an attack.
Like it or not, voters think they already know Roy Cooper. Telling them he was actually a terrible governor asks them to discard the judgment they formed over eight years, or 40 years really.
So perhaps the answer isn’t convincing them that they were wrong about Governor Cooper. It is forcing them to think about Senator Cooper.
If there is any opportunity against Cooper, that’s it.
After writing the column, I decided to put together what a campaign like that could actually look like. The result was RubberStampRoy.com.
The site pairs a series of short “Where do you stand?” videos with evidence from Cooper’s record. No campaign or political group asked me to build it. I wanted to test whether this argument could break through to people who do not spend their days following politics.
If Sebastian is right that Cooper has a glass jaw, this is the punch I would try.
And if it doesn’t land, I honestly don’t know what will.
Read a sample chapter of my book
Speaking of Cooper, I wanted to share with you a sample chapter from my book, The Change Agent. It covers the closing days of the 2016 campaign, including the debates, the recounts and the awkward and petty transition between Govs. McCrory and Cooper.
Then go pick up a copy of the full book!
I’m not sure how they expected to energize the base with a candidate who only has name recognition among the chattering class-and among those, he’s not a favorite.
I really thought he could have used the Helene situation to burn Cooper but he didn’t do anything with his own title of ‘Helene czar.’
I’m frankly amazed that the team isn’t leading with the WNC failures. Two year anniversary is in 4 weeks and they should never stop hollering about the fact that Cooper was at a fundraiser with Dem elites while the waters were killing people.
But then, the NCGOP doesn’t have a killer instinct.
Sigh.
Thanks for this article and especially the useful RubberStampRoy.com. I wouldn't be pessimistic about Whatley's chances. The polls in August mean next to nothing. A lot is going to happen in the next two months which will change the dynamic, including the money coming in. I work with a group Promethean PAC which is adding another element. It's not just that Cooper would go along with the super liberal Democrat agenda. It's also the contrast to what Whatley would be supporting. What President Trump and his economic team are doing is smashing the entire globalist nightmare of outsourcing and green policies of the past many decades and instead rejuvenating an in-depth manufacturing economy in America. The full impact of this on job numbers, wage-levels, family life, etc., will not be felt for several years, but some effects are already visible, and the future is bright from such projects as Vulcan Elements in Johnston County, Johnson & Johnson in Holly Springs, and Corning Optical in Hickory. Promethean PAC intends to be very active to publicize this American System shift that is underway over the next two months.